Predicting space climate change
نویسندگان
چکیده
[1] The recent decline in the open magnetic flux of the Sun heralds the end of the Grand Solar Maximum (GSM) that has persisted throughout the space age, during which the largest‐fluence Solar Energetic Particle (SEP) events have been rare and Galactic Cosmic Ray (GCR) fluxes have been relatively low. In the absence of a predictive model of the solar dynamo, we here make analogue forecasts by studying past variations of solar activity in order to evaluate how long‐term change in space climate may influence the hazardous energetic particle environment of the Earth in the future. We predict the probable future variations in GCR flux, near‐Earth interplanetary magnetic field (IMF), sunspot number, and the probability of large SEP events, all deduced from cosmogenic isotope abundance changes following 24 GSMs in a 9300‐year record. Citation: Barnard, L., M. Lockwood, M. A. Hapgood, M. J. Owens, C. J. Davis, and F. Steinhilber (2011), Predicting space climate change, Geophys. Res. Lett., 38, L16103, doi:10.1029/2011GL048489.
منابع مشابه
Predicting the impact of climate change on the distribution of Pistacia atlantica in the Central Zagros
Predicting the potential distribution of plants in response to climate change is essential for their conservation and management. This study aimed at predicting the effect of climate change on the geographical distribution of Pistacia atlantica in Chaharmahal & Bakhtiari province in the central Zagros region. In this study, we used 19 Bioclimatic variables derived from rainfall and temperature ...
متن کاملPredicting the Effect of Climate Change on the Distribution of Wild Relatives of the Potato Family (Solanaceae) in Iran with Emphasis on Food Security
The Solanaceae family with 49 species of 10 genera is one of the important nutritional, economical, medicinal and ornamental families in which six genera of them are classified in the group of wild relatives. Predicting the effect of climate change on the distribution of plant species is important for their management and conservation. In this study, the effects of climate change on this family...
متن کاملAssessment of Downscaling Methods in Predicting Climatic Parameters under Climate Change Status: A case study in Ardabil Synoptic Station
Climate change is an unprecedented change are taking place. Changes of meteorological parameters such as precipitation, maximum and minimum temperatures. Since weather forecasting is important for these parameters, in this study, the performance of Statistical Downscaling Model (SDSM and Lars-WG) were used to predict temperature and precipitation and mean of these changes for the periods 2046-2...
متن کاملPredicting the Effect of Climate Change on Potato Production in Fereidunshahr (Isfahan, Central Iran) and Evaluation of Adaptation Strategies (Adopting Cultivars and Planting Dates)
Strategies to enhance local adaptation capacity are needed to mitigate climate change impacts and to maintain regional stability of food production. The objectives of this study were to simulate the climate change effects on phenology stages, potato production in the future and to explore the possibilities of employing planting dates and various varieties (Agria, Arinda and Santeh) as mitigatin...
متن کاملPredicting the Effect of Climate Change on the Distribution of Echium Amoenum and Echium Italicum in Iran
Predicting the effect of climate change on the distribution of valuable and endangered plant species is essential for their conservation and management. In this study, the MaxEnt model and 10 environmental variables were used to predict the current and future distribution of E. amoenum and E. italicum in response to climate change. Also, to predict the effect of climate change in the future (th...
متن کاملPotential effects of climate change on ecosystem and tree species distribution in British Columbia.
A new ecosystem-based climate envelope modeling approach was applied to assess potential climate change impacts on forest communities and tree species. Four orthogonal canonical discriminant functions were used to describe the realized climate space for British Columbia's ecosystems and to model portions of the realized niche space for tree species under current and predicted future climates. T...
متن کامل